Why launch now? What does outer space have that Earth doesn't?

First of all, the idea that going to space will solve our problems here on Earth, that we need to diversify our real estate as insurance against social dysfunction, is nonsense. Outer space settlements will not solve greenhouse gas emission or other pollution problems. None of our current issues will be solved, or even mitigated, by vigorous and immediate entry into the unknown - the payoff will come way too late for that. We need to fix our problems here by finding solutions here. Settling in outer space will only solve issues in the very distant future. So if we are stuck now with the consequences of our choices now, why launch? And especially, why launch right now?

The first question, "Why launch?", is obvious. If we achieve self-sufficient space settlements that can grow on their own, then we will have achieved the magic bullet that will be needed for life to survive over the next few hundred million years. If we don't, we die.

So why the rush? If we eventually make it into space, isn't that good enough? Well first of all, life on Earth is only going to get one pass at the fossil fuels - these are likely the decades of maximum wealth. Second, whether it be the Yellowstone caldera, or the next ice age, or the next large meteor, we need to try to get to the point that outer-space settlements are self-sufficient before the next global catastrophe. If for example the Yellowstone caldera were to have a major eruption within the next few thousand years, it would bring us to a place where launching is impossible. These decades right now, while the oil lasts, could be life's only chance to reach a point where it can continue after the Earth dies out in the more distant future.

Now suppose we don't build this ark in time for the next global catastrophe, whatever the next black swan may turn out to be. And suppose that, hundreds or thousands of years later, we were able to find a way to reconstruct ourselves and reach a point where we reacquire the capacity to launch. In this scenario, it would almost certainly be the case that it would have been much easier to have taken care of things now. In this light, then, not launching now becomes a tremendously selfish act.

So we need to start moving now as rapidly as we can. Nothing else matters. Space is HARD. It *is* rocket science. It's a harsh and nasty place, of extremes, far from home. We need to start now because it is hard, and will take a lot of effort and a lot of time to get it right. We have the wealth and stability now to get started, we might not have it later. We need to launch now and launch vigorously to get a fighting chance of self-sufficient settlements that can grow. If we don't launch now, and we miss our current wealth window, then we face the strong possibility that DNA will go extinct in less than a billion years. The long term payoff, in future centuries, will be assured survival of life past the death of the Sun. How long past the death of the Sun? What about the end of the Universe? The big rip? The last proton decays? The last black hole evaporates? Life probably does not have an infinite span in this Universe, which is winding down at every scale.

Yet, who knows what billions of years of ever-grander physics might uncover . . .